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⚡ THIS WEEK'S SIGNAL
The headline writes itself: FERC just took "historic action" on large-load interconnection. The order itself is quieter than the headline. On June 18, the Commission didn't impose a single new cost-allocation rule — it issued show-cause orders telling all six grid operators to defend their current tariffs or rewrite them within 60 days. The substance is real. But "who pays" is exactly the question FERC handed back to the RTOs and, for retail bills, the states.
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📰 MAIN STORY
FERC moved. On June 18, the Commission issued tailored show-cause orders under Section 206 of the Federal Power Act to all six RTOs and ISOs in its jurisdiction — PJM, MISO, SPP, CAISO, ISO-NE, and NYISO — giving each one 60 days to justify why its current rules for connecting large loads are still just and reasonable, or to file changes. Behind it sits a directive from Energy Secretary Chris Wright last October and a 20 MW definition of "large load" that sweeps in essentially every data center worth naming.
Read the order and you can see what FERC is optimizing for: speed it can defend in court. Section 206 show-cause orders are harder to appeal than a sweeping national rule, and they let the Commission set direction without owning every regional detail. The grid operators want room to protect the interconnection work they've already done — SPP, for one, already built an expedited large-load process. And the hyperscalers want certainty that the deals they've already signed survive the transition, which the order pointedly protects: existing and near-final agreements are not meant to be disrupted.
Here's the part worth sitting with. FERC framed this as safeguarding consumers — and the order does guard against cost-shifting among transmission customers. But it explicitly leaves cost-shifting among retail customers to the states. Meanwhile, the bill that's already arriving doesn't wait for compliance filings: PJM's capacity price for the delivery year starting June 1 cleared at its $329.17/MW-day cap, up from $28.92 two years ago. And that's the capped number — without the cap negotiated with Pennsylvania's governor, it would have cleared near $389. The federal order protects the wholesale side. Your retail bill is still somebody else's jurisdiction.
The mechanics, by the numbers: six regional orders, one 60-day clock for tariff filings (compliance due on or about August 17), and a separate 30-day deadline (on or about July 18) for each operator to report how it will ensure enough generation to actually serve these loads. Five reform categories in every order — faster study processes, cost-shift prevention and cost transparency, co-location and behind-the-meter accommodation, new transmission services for flexible loads, and a process to study generation sited next to large loads. Notably absent: any fixed percentage of upgrade costs assigned to large customers. DOE's original proposal floated assigning 100%. The June 18 orders did not adopt it.
Scenario A: The RTOs file substantive tariff revisions by mid-August and the regions diverge fast. SPP and PJM — already ahead on large-load and co-location frameworks — set the template, while CAISO (which doesn't even offer traditional Order No. 888 transmission service) and ISO-NE take longer and read as more uncertain to developers choosing where to build. Scenario B: One or more operators choose to defend rather than revise, or NARUC and state regulators challenge FERC's jurisdiction over load interconnection in court — and the cost-allocation question everyone thinks got answered on June 18 stays open well into 2027.
The one thing to watch: the compliance filings due on or about August 17 — that's when "who pays" stops being a press release and starts being tariff language.
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⚡ QUICK HITS
New York's Moratorium Bill Sits on the Governor's Desk: The first-in-the-nation data center moratorium awaits action, with roughly $10B in New York pipeline projects and a NYISO large-load queue that has grown to around 12 GW riding on the outcome. A signature, veto, or pocket approach all set different national precedents — and as of the latest briefing the bill had not been recorded as delivered or signed, so confirm the live status before you send.
Blackstone and Halliburton Put a Reported $1B Into VoltaGrid: The behind-the-meter gas-plus-battery model just picked up an institutional underwriter, signaling the segment is moving from one-off project finance toward a permanent infrastructure asset class. For investors, that's confirmation "bring your own power" is becoming a fundable category rather than a workaround.
The Nuclear Premium, Quantified: Bloomberg Intelligence has pegged hyperscaler nuclear PPAs at roughly $141–220/MWh against about $50–60 for gas, wind, or solar (analyst Rob Barnett). Hyperscalers are paying it anyway for 24/7 carbon-free baseload — which tells you how they're now valuing firmness over headline price.
Utility Capex Forecast Nears $1.3 Trillion: S&P Global's Regulatory Research Associates now puts 2026–2030 utility infrastructure spending at approximately $1.295T, up from roughly $1.169T in the December forecast. That's the supply side gearing up — and the number that eventually surfaces in rate cases.
PJM's Peak Load Jumped More Than 5,400 MW in One Year: PJM's forecasted peak for the 2026/27 delivery year rose by over 5,400 MW year over year, driven largely by data center expansion. That's the demand curve the FERC order is chasing — and it's already baked into this year's capacity cap.
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🔧 TOOL / RESOURCE OF THE WEEK
FERC Docket RM26-4-000 (ferc.gov/rm26-4 → eLibrary): FERC's public docket and filing database, where every RTO compliance submission in this proceeding will land. Right now it's the cleanest way to read the actual order text and catch the August tariff filings yourself before the trade press summarizes them. → https://www.ferc.gov/rm26-4
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💬 CLOSING THOUGHT
What I keep coming back to: this order is being read as the moment the cost question got settled, when it's closer to the moment that question got formally assigned to six different rooms. The optimism holds if the August filings come back substantive and consistent. It frays if they're six regions defending six status quos. So, the thing I actually don't know — when your RTO files, do you expect a real rewrite, or a well-argued defense of what's already there?
