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⚡ THIS WEEK'S SIGNAL
The nuclear that shows up this decade is a retrofit. Google, Amazon and Meta now back roughly 1.6 gigawatts (GW) of uprates, upgrades that squeeze more output from reactors already running, and most of it was announced or financed since Sept. 21. Call it new megawatts, old reactors. One more detail: the federal energy regulator rejected the grid-operator proposal Google said it was answering just three days after Google said so.
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📰 MAIN STORY
Nuclear's fastest new megawatts are coming from reactors that already run. On Oct. 6, Google and Constellation announced a 20-year power purchase agreement (PPA) backing 890 megawatts (MW) of uprates across 11 Constellation units, the largest of four uprate programs announced or financed between Sept. 21 and Oct. 6. It extends our July 7 tally of hyperscaler nuclear, where restarts and uprates at existing plants made up about 6.4 GW. It also moves a thread from our Aug. 25 Crane issue: the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the federal nuclear safety regulator, issued Crane's final environmental assessment on Sept. 18, while the license amendments themselves remain under review.
Here is what each party is optimizing for. Google wants new supply it can point to as it adds load on PJM, the mid-Atlantic and Midwest grid operator; its release calls the deal a response to PJM's "Bring Your Own Power" proposal and cites the White House Ratepayer Protection Pledge. Constellation wants a funded reason to spend more than $4.3 billion and, in its words, revenue certainty for plants it already operates. Vistra, holding a conditional Department of Energy (DOE) loan commitment of up to $4.2 billion, gets cheaper capital for 433 MW that Meta has already contracted (analysis).
Here is the gap the headline hides. Google contracted 3,590 MW from Constellation, and 890 MW of that is new capacity, about a quarter (my arithmetic from the release's 890 and 2,700 MW figures). The other 2,700 MW is a 15-year supply agreement the companies describe as a financial structure that keeps existing plants delivering energy and capacity to PJM. Meanwhile PJM is trying to cover a 6,831.3 MW shortfall from its 2028/2029 capacity auction through a backstop procurement that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), the national power regulator, accepted Sept. 29 and then suspended until Feb. 28, 2027, subject to refund.
The numbers, from the releases and filings:
Google–Constellation (Oct. 6): 890 MW at 11 units in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey; more than $4.3 billion of Constellation investment, roughly $4,800 per kilowatt if all of it is uprate cost (my arithmetic; Constellation has not published a unit cost).
Amazon–Constellation (Sept. 30): 690 MW over 20 years at Calvert Cliffs, including a roughly 190 MW uprate online 2030–2032; more than $3 billion of Maryland investment.
Vistra (DOE, Oct. 5): up to $4.2 billion for 433 MW of uprates, all contracted to Meta. It is a conditional commitment, not yet a loan.
Georgia Power–Google (Sept. 21): about 96 MW at Plants Vogtle and Hatch, pending state approval.
Total: the four programs add up to about 1,609 MW (my arithmetic).
Scenario A: PJM comes back with a rule that credits self-supplied capacity. If its compliance filing in FERC docket ER26-3515, due about Nov. 8, is followed by a narrower design that counts uprates, Constellation and the lenders behind the $4.3 billion would hold contracts that also carry market standing, and PJM utilities would get supply they can plan around. Scenario B: it doesn't. The uprates still get built under contract, but "bring your own capacity" stays a corporate choice instead of a tariff rule. Analysis: ratepayer protection then lives in contracts nobody outside the parties can read, and the suspended backstop carries more of the load.
The one thing to watch: PJM's compliance filing in ER26-3515 for anything that replaces the rejected "bring your own new capacity" rules.
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🧾 DEAL DECODER
Google–Constellation (Oct. 6): one announcement, two contracts.
Who signs what. Google and Constellation sign a 20-year PPA for 890 MW of uprate output and, separately, a 15-year supply agreement for 2,700 MW that the joint release calls a "financial structure" for existing plants.
Who fronts the capital. Constellation, more than $4.3 billion, repaid through the PPA. Price, minimum-take and termination terms are not in the release.
Who eats the loss. Undisclosed. Analysis: if an NRC approval slips, the open question is whether Google's payments start at signing or at energization.
Precedent. The next developer asks for both halves: payment for new megawatts, a revenue floor for old ones. Think of an anchor tenant who renews its own lease and also underwrites the landlord's renovation.
Announced and contracted: yes. Filed at the NRC: not yet (first application planned Q4 2026). Energized: none. (Source: Google–Constellation joint release, Oct. 6, 2026; NRC expected-applications list.)
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⚡ QUICK HITS
Amazon, AEP and X-energy will study twelve reactors on a former Indiana coal site. American Electric Power's (AEP) Oct. 19 release describes a joint development agreement for a 960 MW plant of twelve 80 MW small modular reactors in Sullivan County, with Amazon funding development and intending to buy the power under a long-term contract if it is built. For Indiana ratepayers the context is a utility that expects peak load to climb from 2,800 MW to more than 7,000 MW by 2030, per Utility Dive; the release says the agreements are designed to protect customers, but I did not find the funding amount or price in what I reviewed. [AEP release] [Utility Dive]
Georgia asks its commission whether Google's uprate subscription spares everyone else. On Sept. 21 Georgia Power filed (Dockets 44280 and 56002) a new tariff under which Google subscribes to about 96 MW of uprates and receives the zero-emission credits, with the utility projecting about $900 million in customer benefits over the units' lives. That figure is Georgia Power's projection, not a finding; the Georgia commission's ruling is where the claim that other customers are protected gets tested. [Georgia Power release]
The NRC's own list expects 31 uprate filings through 2032. The agency's Sept. 8 table totals about 2,421 MWe, with Constellation's first extended power uprate application planned for Q4 2026 and 17 filings expected in 2027. For utility program managers, every contract above converts to megawatts only after these reviews, and 2027 is the crowded year. [NRC]
California held Google's 250 MW San Jose resolution again, now to Oct. 29. That answers the open question in our Oct. 13 issue: the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) did not vote Oct. 8. The draft would approve PG&E's agreement with modifications, including refunds limited to annual net revenues plus an income-tax adjustment and broader network-upgrade costs handled in a separate advice letter, so Oct. 29 is the next test of who carries cost if the load never arrives. [Stoel Rives, Oct. 14]
California's only nuclear plant is licensed to 2045 and permitted to 2030. The NRC renewed Diablo Canyon's licenses April 2, but state law lets the plant run only through 2030; Gov. Newsom said in August he would pass the extension question to his successor, and Sen. Laird said the Legislature would take it up in 2027. Analysis: for California planners and ratepayers, 2030 is a replacement-procurement date as much as a retirement date, while PJM's reactors are getting hyperscaler money to grow. [Governor's office] [Sen. Laird]
🧭 THE EXPOSURE MAP
If you hold equities: Structurally exposed: owners of existing reactors with funded uprate programs, their turbine and steam-generator suppliers, and the lenders; further from cash are new-reactor developers, whose first revenue is 2030 or later. Events that would confirm or contradict: Constellation's Q3 results (early November, date unconfirmed), Amazon’s Oct. 29 call, and Vistra's definitive DOE loan documents. Companies named here are participants, not recommendations.
If you run projects at a utility: The NRC list puts 17 uprate filings in 2027. Check whether an uprate at a plant on your system needs a new interconnection study.
If you set or influence policy: FERC's Oct. 9 order leaves PJM without a rule for self-supplied capacity, and hyperscaler contracts are filling the gap. Next venues: PJM's compliance filing, Georgia's Dockets 44280 and 56002, and the CPUC on Oct. 29.
If you pay a utility bill or buy AI compute: Nothing here changes a bill this quarter; Google's first uprate is expected by 2028. The mechanism to watch is PJM capacity pricing, which reaches retail customers through each state's supply charges on different schedules. For AI tools, whether these costs reach price lists is the vendor's call.
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🔧 TOOL / RESOURCE OF THE WEEK
NRC Expected Applications for Power Uprates: The agency's table of which plant owners plan to file which uprates, by quarter, through 2032. Infrastructure investors and lenders can use it to see when contracted megawatts turn into licensing reviews, though most Constellation rows say "proprietary," so mapping them to specific units is still guesswork; we will
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💬 CLOSING THOUGHT
I'm cautiously optimistic. The nuclear arriving this decade is a retrofit, paid for by the companies whose load created the shortage, with a federal lender beside them. For the optimism to hold, NRC approvals need to land on schedule and contract terms need to become readable: price and minimum take. Until PJM's rule returns, ratepayer protection lives in contracts we can't read.
Will protection end up living in contracts instead of tariffs?
